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04 September 2019



Video commentary for September 3rd 2019


Eoin Treacy’s view

A link to today’s video commentary is posted in the Subscriber’s Area. 

Some of the topics discusseded include: Xi Jinping’s speech and support for the stock market, gold and silver resurgent, bonds look overstretched, Euro and Pound steady from their lows, Japan steady, Wall Street closes off its lows. 



Is an inflation resurgence credible?


Eoin Treacy’s view

At the end of last year, a return of inflation was assumed to be inevitable with the 10-year Treasury yield trading comfortably above 3%, commodity prices recovering, wages marching higher, full employment and high capacity utilisation. The perspective could not be more different today.

Interminable deflation has been priced in to Treasury yields as they test the lows of the last eight years. Commodity prices are under pressure, the trade war has resulted in a number of export dependent nations flirting with recessions, purchasing managers indices suggest contracting manufacturing activity and an inverted yield curve has started the clock on the next recession. Meanwhile gold has exploded on the upside to complete a six-year base formation.



What Is a Tech Company?

I found this a thoughtful article from the Stratechery blog discussing what should qualify as a technology company. Here is a section on Netflix:

The question of whether companies are tech companies, then, depends on how much of their business is governed by software’s unique characteristics, and how much is limited by real world factors. Consider Netflix, a company that both competes with traditional television and movie companies yet is also considered a tech company:

There is no real software-created ecosystem.
Netflix shows are delivered at zero marginal costs without the need to pay distributors (although bandwidth bills are significant).
Netflix’s product improves over time.
Netflix is able to serve the entire world because of software, giving them far more leverage than much of their competition.
Netflix can transact with anyone with a self-serve model.

Netflix checks four of the five boxes.


Eoin Treacy’s view

TV shows and movies are delivered at no additional marginal cost once produced. That is true but they do not have the same residual value as software because unless the show is particularly good the vast majority of people will never watch it again.



India May Have Entered ‘Quasi-Recession’ as Growth Plummets

This article by Ronojoy Mazumdar for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Official data on Friday showed that gross domestic product in Asia’s No. 3 economy grew 5% in April-June from a year earlier, below the weakest estimate of 39 economists polled by Bloomberg and the slowest pace in six years. The five straight quarters of slowing growth mark the longest slump since 2012.
Under the hood, the numbers offer more cause for concern on whether output – once adjusted for inflation — will increase fast enough to ensure borrowers cover their interest payments. A Bloomberg gauge of high-frequency indicators suggests that economic activity continued to weaken in July, with investment and consumption both falling. Economists at Nirmal Bang expect GDP growth to bottom out in the quarter ending September but believe that “a counter-cyclical government spending boost is required.”


Eoin Treacy’s view

The consolidation of the state-owned banking sector announced last week is a positive. India is a fast-growing economy with strong potential to become a future manufacturing powerhouse not least because factories are seeking a new home as they exit China.



Email of the day on podcasts and videos

I this a new feature?  I hope so. Never noticed it before, it’s fab. All really interesting, please make it permanent! Hope you’re well.


Eoin Treacy’s view

Thank you for the feedback. I believe Fullermoney was among the first services anywhere to offer the kind of audio commentaries which are now referred to as podcasts. The first was on March 2nd 2004 and they have been a daily feature of the service for over 15 years. The first video version of the Subscriber’s Audio I recorded was on October 4th 2016. In the past three years many more services, particularly asset managers, have chosen to use both audio and video media to convey their messages because of the popularity of the medium. I’m increasingly coming into contact with these reports and I will post those I believe are of interest to the Collective on Fridays.



Eoin’s personal portfolio: crypto long increased July 15th 2019


Eoin Treacy’s view

One of the most commonly asked questions by subscribers is how to find details of my open traders. In an effort to make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change. I’ll change the title to the date of publication of new details so you will know when the information was provided. 



2019: The 50th year of The Chart Seminar


Eoin Treacy’s view

The London Philharmonic Orchestra is holding a concert in David’s memory on October 5th October at the Royal Festival Hall. There is a reception between 5.30 and 6.45 in the Foyle Pavilion, Level 3, Green Side and subscribers are well to join David’s family there for light refreshments. Following the reception, we will move to the Beecham Bar, Blue Side, Level 5 for a short talk by Tim Walker, Chairman of the LPO. 

If you wish to attend the concert as well, which includes a performance of Elgar’s Cello Concerto by the Young Musician of the Year, it begins at 7.30 and you may book tickets (£67) by telephone on 020 7840 4242 quoting the code Fuller Concert.

Since this is the 50th year of The Chart Seminar we will be conducting the event on October 3rd and 4th to coincide with the memorial on the Saturday.

In the meantime, if you have any questions, would like to attend, or have a suggestion for another venue please feel to reach out to Sarah at  

The full rate for The Chart Seminar is £1799 + VAT. (Please note US, Australian and Asian delegates, as non-EU residents are not liable for VAT). Annual subscribers are offered a discounted rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one place can also avail of the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates.






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