InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (LON:IHG) will deliver a third-quarter update on Friday.
Over the decade to the end of this July, shares in the Holiday Inn owner’s shares soared sixfold to an all-time high of above £57, but have fallen 17% in the two and a half months since.
In August’s half-year results, the FTSE 100 showed evidence of weaker revenue available per room (revpar) in the key market of the US and China.
Revenues of US$1.01bn in the first six months of 2019 were up 13% on the same period last year but slightly short of the US$1.02bn that analysts expected, with comparable revpar down 0.2% in the second quarter from the 0.3% growth in the first.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate there will be a 0.1% decline in group revpar in the third quarter, compared to 0.1% growth in the first half, based on continued weakness that has been shown in market data in the US and more acutely in Greater China.
“This is despite easy comps, so it implies a slowdown in the two-year growth rate to 0.9% in the quarter, compared to 3.8% in H1.”
For the full year MS estimates 0.4% revpar growth, which would require a pick-up in the fourth quarter to 1.7%.
After flat underlying profits in the first half, the analysts said IHG needs 10% growth in the second half to hit consensus expectations of $870mln.
Significant events on Friday 18 October:
Economic announcements: European Council meeting